Do I ship it?

Games › Logic › Logic + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Logic game?

Logic + Sci-fi

Of 248 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 330 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×257 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 330 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 330 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 248
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.7k → $839 → $449 → $299 → $838 → $896 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 248
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $122k (exactly $122,247)
Developers, 2 yr 248
Released games 675
Announced 330
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 20,125 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 128 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 330 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M shapez 2 - Factory 2026 · $12M The Talos Principle 2 2023 · $11M Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M Hacknet 2015 · $5.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Infinifactory older $24.99 1,790 95% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,341,963) Zachtronics
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Mind Over Magnet $9.99 1,344 89% 40k $403k (exactly $402,797) Game Maker's Toolkit
Schrodinger's Cat Burglar $19.99 613 97% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) Abandoned Sheep
Stellar Code $24.98 448 97% 13k $336k (exactly $335,731) Fragaria
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
Machinika: Atlas $11.99 574 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,468) Littlefield Studio
Atomcraft $14.99 407 94% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) Triplejump
ADEN $8.99 670 96% 20k $181k (exactly $180,699) takayakata

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.