Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Sci-fi

Of 34 developers who shipped a Sci-fi 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $26k, ×56 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 86 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 86 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $390 → $1.8k → $3.2k → $898 → $4.5k → $240 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,632)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 188
Announced 86
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Action, Local Co-Op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 457 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
Distance older $24.99 5,832 93% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,372,250) Refract
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Lovers in a Dangerous Spacetime older $14.99 3,368 93% 101k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,590) Asteroid Base
HARDCORE MECHA older $19.99 2,331 83% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,901) RocketPunch Games
DARIUSBURST Chronicle Saviours older $49.99 717 82% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,285) Pyramid
Out of Space older $14.99 2,003 79% 60k $901k (exactly $900,749) Behold Studios
Assault Android Cactus+ older $19.99 1,325 94% 40k $795k (exactly $794,602) Witch Beam
Aero GPX · EA older $19.99 747 97% 22k $448k (exactly $447,976) Aaron McDevitt
Diesel Legacy: The Brazen Age $19.99 145 91% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Maximum Entertainment
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
Servonauts $14.99 39 87% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) MAXART Games
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
Galactic Thunderdome $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Pansimula
Bugscraper $9.99 28 96% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Yolwoocle, OLX, Verbaudet, Ninesliced
It’s Quiz Time: GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ 2026 Edition $29.99 8 100% 240 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) Snap Finger Click
Forehead Chip $9.99 18 94% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Naturally Intelligent
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Zone 6 $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Ullbors

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.