Do I ship it?

GamesLocal MultiplayerLocal Multiplayer + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Local Multiplayer game?

Local Multiplayer + Sci-fi

Of 104 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 176 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×277 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 176 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 176 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 104
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $598 → $1.5k → $3.4k → $3.6k → $1.9k → $449 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 104
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,198)
Top 5% $132k (exactly $131,650)
Developers, 2 yr 104
Released games 455
Announced 176
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Co-Op, Arcade
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 106,882 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 176 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Among Us older $4.99 659,003 92% 20M $99M (exactly $98,652,749) Innersloth
Serious Sam 3: BFE older $29.99 21,834 87% 655k $20M (exactly $19,644,050) Croteam
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
LEGO® Star Wars™ - The Complete Saga older $19.99 20,768 96% 623k $12M (exactly $12,454,570) Traveller's Tales
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Sonic Adventure 2 older $9.99 23,755 90% 713k $7.1M (exactly $7,119,374) SEGA
Awesomenauts older $19.99 11,822 84% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,089,653) Ronimo Games
Distance older $24.99 5,832 93% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,372,250) Refract
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Together: Moon Escape $9.99 868 90% 26k $260k (exactly $260,140) CarlosGameDev
XF Extreme Formula $11.99 366 90% 11k $132k (exactly $131,650) Feperd Games
Warhammer 40,000: Fire Warrior (Classic) $9.99 439 74% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) Kuju Entertainment
Shape Shifter: Formations $14.99 269 91% 8.1k $121k (exactly $120,969) Castec Studios
TRANSFORMERS: Galactic Trials $39.99 93 78% 2.8k $112k (exactly $111,572) 3DClouds
Chip ‘n Clawz vs. The Brainioids $29.99 90 83% 2.7k $81k (exactly $80,973) Snapshot Games Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.