Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Sci-fi

Of 134 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 285 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×424 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 285 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 285 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 134
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.2k → $2.1k → $210 → $1.1k → $1.7k → $359 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 134
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,786)
Top 5% $266k (exactly $266,267)
Developers, 2 yr 134
Released games 454
Announced 285
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Base Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 22,464 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 285 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Dune: Spice Wars older $34.99 11,561 79% 347k $12M (exactly $12,135,582) Shiro Games
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2 older $19.99 9,701 74% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,690) Tindalos Interactive
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Creeper World 4 older $24.99 4,553 94% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,413,384) Knuckle Cracker
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Axon TD: Uprising - Tower Defense $19.99 706 85% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Element Studios
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Space Reign $19.99 444 72% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Propulsive Games
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
Defender's Quest 2: Mists of Ruin $19.99 242 61% 7.3k $145k (exactly $145,127) Level Up Labs, LLC
Liquidation RTS · EA $21.99 161 89% 4.8k $106k (exactly $106,212) Divio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.