Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration game?

Exploration

Of 7,466 developers who shipped an Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15,501 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1321 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 15,501 games are announced against 4,367 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 15,501 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7,466
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $2.6k → $2.7k → $2.2k → $2.3k → $1.9k → $1.6k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7,466
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,776)
Top 5% $627k (exactly $627,443)
Developers, 2 yr 7,466
Released games 22,334
Announced 15,501
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,271,036 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 4,349 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15,501 games are announced against 4,367 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Exploration

184 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Exploration + Local Co-Op Poor odds $4.2k 93 devs
  2. Open World + Exploration Poor odds $4.0k 1,418 devs
  3. Spectacle fighter + Exploration Poor odds $4.0k 41 devs
  4. Exploration + Card Game Poor odds $3.7k 118 devs
  5. Agriculture + Exploration Poor odds $3.6k 87 devs
  6. Exploration + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $3.6k 66 devs
  7. Swordplay + Exploration Poor odds $3.6k 84 devs
  8. Exploration + Political Sim Poor odds $3.6k 21 devs
  9. Exploration + Visual Novel Poor odds $3.5k 501 devs
  10. Level Editor + Exploration Poor odds $3.5k 63 devs
  11. Exploration + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.4k 353 devs
  12. Hack and Slash + Exploration Poor odds $3.4k 277 devs
  13. RPG + Exploration Poor odds $3.3k 1,798 devs
  14. PvP + Exploration Poor odds $3.3k 185 devs
  15. Grand Strategy + Exploration Poor odds $3.0k 45 devs
  16. Simulation + Exploration Poor odds $2.8k 1,876 devs
  17. Exploration + Twin Stick Shooter Poor odds $2.8k 32 devs
  18. Creature Collector + Exploration Poor odds $2.7k 228 devs
  19. Exploration + Mining Poor odds $2.7k 193 devs
  20. Hunting + Exploration Poor odds $2.7k 96 devs
  21. Gun Customization + Exploration Poor odds $2.7k 53 devs
  22. Offroad + Exploration Poor odds $2.7k 42 devs
  23. Exploration + Roguelite Poor odds $2.6k 398 devs
  24. Destruction + Exploration Poor odds $2.4k 88 devs
  25. Exploration + Rhythm Poor odds $2.4k 45 devs
  26. Class-Based + Exploration Poor odds $2.3k 61 devs
  27. Vehicular Combat + Exploration Poor odds $2.3k 47 devs
  28. Immersive Sim + Exploration Poor odds $2.2k 829 devs
  29. Turn-Based Strategy + Exploration Poor odds $2.2k 232 devs
  30. Sports + Exploration Poor odds $2.2k 110 devs
  31. Survival + Exploration Poor odds $2.2k 1,057 devs
  32. Action RPG + Exploration Poor odds $2.1k 700 devs
  33. Exploration + Point & Click Poor odds $2.1k 634 devs
  34. Exploration + Idler Poor odds $2.0k 157 devs
  35. God Game + Exploration Poor odds $2.0k 41 devs
  36. Survival Horror + Exploration Poor odds $2.0k 933 devs
  37. Exploration + Time Manipulation Poor odds $1.9k 66 devs
  38. Shooter + Exploration Poor odds $1.9k 566 devs
  39. Exploration + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.9k 527 devs
  40. CRPG + Exploration Poor odds $1.9k 180 devs
  41. Adventure + Exploration Poor odds $1.9k 5,226 devs
  42. Physics + Exploration Poor odds $1.9k 712 devs
  43. Exploration + Investigation Poor odds $1.9k 693 devs
  44. Party-Based RPG + Exploration Poor odds $1.8k 204 devs
  45. Action + Exploration Poor odds $1.8k 2,913 devs
  46. FPS + Exploration Poor odds $1.8k 519 devs
  47. Exploration + Inventory Management Poor odds $1.8k 309 devs
  48. Looter Shooter + Exploration Poor odds $1.8k 81 devs
  49. Boomer Shooter + Exploration Poor odds $1.8k 57 devs
  50. Parkour + Exploration Poor odds $1.8k 163 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.