Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Exploration

Of 204 developers who shipped an Exploration Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 493 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×935 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 493 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 493 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 204
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $9.0k → $5.8k → $4.3k → $5.3k → $809 → $719 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 204
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,325)
Top 5% $587k (exactly $587,015)
Developers, 2 yr 204
Released games 639
Announced 493
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 237,467 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 118 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 493 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Pillars of Eternity older $29.99 16,990 87% 510k $15M (exactly $15,285,903) Obsidian Entertainment
FINAL FANTASY XII THE ZODIAC AGE older $49.99 8,679 88% 260k $13M (exactly $13,015,896) Square Enix
Sea of Stars: Sunset Edition older $34.99 12,060 87% 362k $13M (exactly $12,659,382) Sabotage Studio
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Atelier Resleriana: The Red Alchemist & the White Guardian $59.99 714 89% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,986) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.