Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Exploration game?

Physics + Exploration

Of 712 developers who shipped a Physics Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,387 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2068 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 1,387 games are announced against 405 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 1,387 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 712
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.2k → $1.3k → $959 → $2.1k → $2.2k → $1.8k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 712
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,787)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600)
Developers, 2 yr 712
Released games 1,757
Announced 1,387
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 839,961 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 361 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,387 games are announced against 405 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M BeamNG.drive 2015 · EA · $291M Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M PEAK 2025 · $72M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Garry's Mod older $9.99 1,093,131 96% 33M $328M (exactly $327,611,361) Facepunch Studios
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Just Cause™ 3 older $19.99 104,140 85% 3.1M $62M (exactly $62,452,758) Avalanche Studios
Space Engineers older $19.99 100,533 89% 3.0M $60M (exactly $60,289,640) Keen Software House
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Kerbal Space Program 2 · EA older $49.99 27,930 26% 838k $42M (exactly $41,886,621) Intercept Games
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
RV There Yet? $7.99 72,732 90% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,433,860) Nuggets Entertainment
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.