Do I ship it?

GamesOffroadOffroad + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Offroad game?

Offroad + Exploration

Of 42 developers who shipped an Exploration Offroad game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2626 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 70 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 70 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $898 → $5.0k → $2.7k → $1.3k → $4.5k → $2.7k (still earning) → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Offroad + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,875)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 101
Announced 70
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Physics, Racing
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 88,255 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 3D PlatformerLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  4. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  6. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds10 devs · median $2.3k · 26 announced
  8. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  11. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds19 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MudRunner older $19.99 37,705 91% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,611,688) Saber Interactive
RV There Yet? $7.99 72,732 90% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,433,860) Nuggets Entertainment
JDM: Japanese Drift Master $34.99 5,217 75% 157k $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) Gaming Factory
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Expeditions: A MudRunner Game older $39.99 3,000 59% 90k $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) Saber Interactive
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Yellow Taxi Goes Vroom older $16.99 1,621 97% 49k $826k (exactly $826,224) Panik Arcade
Pure Rock Crawling $14.99 1,291 83% 39k $581k (exactly $580,563) Maciej Kuzianik
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
BRUTAL JOHN 2 · EA $12.99 546 94% 16k $213k (exactly $212,776) OldSchool Laws Team
Recharge: Room Games · EA $19.99 313 67% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Room Games
Truck Mechanic: Dangerous Paths $19.99 150 60% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Atomic Jelly
Bar After Bar $6.99 331 87% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) OneMan Tim

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.