Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Destruction game?

Destruction + Exploration

Of 88 developers who shipped an Exploration Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 200 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4123 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 200 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 200 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $2.2k → $1.5k → $13k → $19k → $2.0k → $839 (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 244
Announced 200
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 50,014 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 200 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Just Cause™ 3 older $19.99 104,140 85% 3.1M $62M (exactly $62,452,758) Avalanche Studios
Universe Sandbox · EA older $29.99 27,843 96% 835k $25M (exactly $25,050,347) Giant Army
Just Cause 2 older $14.99 41,019 90% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,446,244) Avalanche Studios
Goat Simulator older $9.99 54,740 90% 1.6M $16M (exactly $16,405,578) Coffee Stain Studios
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
LEGO® Worlds older $29.99 12,487 77% 375k $11M (exactly $11,234,554) TT Games, Traveller's Tales
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
ANTONBLAST $19.99 3,943 95% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,364,617) Summitsphere
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.