Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Political Sim?

Exploration + Political Sim

Of 21 developers who shipped an Exploration Political Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×3077 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 48 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $390 → $1.5M → $1.9k → $3.6k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 66
Announced 48
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Political Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 5,460 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Anno 1404 - History Edition older $14.99 3,454 82% 104k $1.6M (exactly $1,553,264) Ubisoft Mainz
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
TheoTown older $9.99 4,631 94% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,911) Lobby Divinus
Floodland older $19.99 921 54% 28k $552k (exactly $552,324) Vile Monarch
Base One older $24.99 458 36% 14k $343k (exactly $343,363) PixFroze
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
NationWar:Chronicles | 国战:列国志传 older $10.99 383 68% 11k $126k (exactly $126,275) Yiming
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.
Ascendant Dawn $15.99 13 84% 390 $6.2k (exactly $6,236) Nikous Studio
The Three Kingdoms of Shadows: Xuzhou $6.99 23 82% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) 鹏砚
Macht: Cosmic Engine · EA $24.99 5 80% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kestro Games
EmpireX - Business, Real Estate and Crime Simulator $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) darkwolf66

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.