Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Exploration

Of 61 developers who shipped an Exploration Class-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 169 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×739 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 169 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 169 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $14k → $20k → $598 → $1.9k → $1.1k → $4.3k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,667)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 173
Announced 169
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 13,070 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 169 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
FINAL FANTASY older $11.99 8,120 95% 244k $2.9M (exactly $2,920,764) Square Enix
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
FINAL FANTASY VI older $17.99 4,600 92% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,482,620) Square Enix
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
FINAL FANTASY IV older $17.99 2,807 91% 84k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,938) Square Enix
SKALD: Against the Black Priory older $14.99 3,325 93% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,495,252) High North Studios AS
FINAL FANTASY III older $17.99 2,639 93% 79k $1.4M (exactly $1,424,268) Square Enix
Erenshor · EA $19.99 2,153 94% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,291,154) Burgee Media
FBC: Firebreak $19.99 1,985 65% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Remedy Entertainment
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Dimraeth · EA $21.99 889 80% 27k $586k (exactly $586,473) Mudtek
HellSlave II: Judgment of the Archon $19.99 316 77% 9.5k $190k (exactly $189,505) Ars Goetia
Camelot Unchained · EA $9.99 369 38% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) Unchained Entertainment
Afallon · EA $11.99 262 79% 7.9k $94k (exactly $94,241) Stargazing interactive
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Hunters Inc $14.99 155 56% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) WYLDERZONE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.