Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Idler?

Exploration + Idler

Of 157 developers who shipped an Exploration Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 246 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×4.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×386 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 246 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 246 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 157
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $4.6k → $1.1k → $3.3k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $1.8k (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 157
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,091)
Top 5% $183k (exactly $183,380)
Developers, 2 yr 157
Released games 367
Announced 246
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 22,870 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 246 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
THE LONGING older $14.99 6,977 92% 209k $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) Studio Seufz
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Digseum $2.99 8,033 97% 241k $721k (exactly $720,560) Rat Monthly
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
All Hail the Orb $6.99 1,291 93% 39k $271k (exactly $270,723) LeGingerDev
Stuck In Time older $7.99 1,018 84% 31k $244k (exactly $244,015) Housemade Inc.
Asbury Pines · EA $12.99 558 90% 17k $217k (exactly $217,453) Chaystar Unlimited LLC
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Stone Simulator – Just Be a Rock $3.99 1,532 94% 46k $183k (exactly $183,380) STFGames
Desktop Raid $8.99 672 76% 20k $181k (exactly $181,238) Lee_Studio
Coin Push RPG $9.99 584 76% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) RAmen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.