Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Exploration

Of 87 developers who shipped an Exploration Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 218 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2068 the market median. Revenue is up 550% on the market; 218 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 550% on the market, 218 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.6k → $13k → $28k → $2.9k → $3.5k → $4.4k → $39k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $597 (exactly $597)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,526)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 260
Announced 218
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 550% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Life Sim, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 44,775 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 218 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Settlement Survival older $21.49 7,703 85% 231k $5.0M (exactly $4,966,124) Gleamer Studio
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
Roots of Pacha older $24.99 3,779 93% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Soda Den
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Cozy Caravan $19.99 1,247 93% 37k $748k (exactly $747,826) 5 Lives Studios
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Cowboy Life Simulator · EA $18.99 1,120 89% 34k $638k (exactly $638,064) Odd Qubit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.