Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Exploration game?

PvP + Exploration

Of 185 developers who shipped a PvP Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 664 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×1732 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 664 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 664 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 185
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.7k → $2.1k → $8.8k → $3.1k → $3.8k → $6.1k → $4.0k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 185
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,255)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835)
Developers, 2 yr 185
Released games 645
Announced 664
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Online Co-Op
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 225,997 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 128 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 664 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Garry's Mod older $9.99 1,093,131 96% 33M $328M (exactly $327,611,361) Facepunch Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Conan Exiles Enhanced older $39.99 79,741 78% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,665,278) Funcom, Inflexion Games
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Super Battle Golf $12.99 9,325 93% 280k $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) Brimstone
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.