Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Hunting game?

Hunting + Exploration

Of 96 developers who shipped an Exploration Hunting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 204 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2181 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 204 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 204 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $6.7k → $1.9k → $2.4k → $3.5k → $1.9k → $5.7k (still earning) → $750 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,262)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 275
Announced 204
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 42,075 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 204 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Depth older $19.99 23,590 89% 708k $14M (exactly $14,146,923) Ammobox Studios
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Way of the Hunter older $29.99 8,528 81% 256k $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) Nine Rocks Games
Way of the Hunter 2 · EA $34.99 1,534 73% 46k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240) Nine Rocks Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
Sensual Adventures - Treasure Island · EA $29.99 303 81% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) Puppetmaster3dx

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.