Do I ship it?

GamesVehicular CombatVehicular Combat + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Vehicular Combat game?

Vehicular Combat + Exploration

Of 47 developers who shipped an Exploration Vehicular Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2949 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 121 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 121 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Vehicular Combat + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $120 → $18k → $1.8k → $4.9k → $12k → $4.0k (still earning) → $75 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Vehicular Combat + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,279)
Top 25% $77k (exactly $76,752)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 121
Announced 121
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Vehicular Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Vehicular Combat, Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 49,567 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $76k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Vehicular Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Looter ShooterFair11 devs · median $15k · 14 announced
  2. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $62k · 75 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $32k · 101 announced
  5. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 36 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $20k · 43 announced
  7. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $15k · 97 announced
  8. + ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 36 announced
  9. + SandboxPoor odds25 devs · median $10k · 70 announced
  10. + Real Time TacticsPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $8.6k · 25 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds24 devs · median $4.8k · 52 announced

All 98 pairs on the Vehicular Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
RAGE 2 older $39.99 14,019 64% 421k $17M (exactly $16,818,594) id Software, Avalanche Studios
TerraTech older $24.99 20,564 92% 617k $15M (exactly $15,416,831) Payload Studios
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
SAND LAND older $59.99 1,018 86% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,095) ILCA, Inc.
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Echoes of Elysium · EA $19.99 506 61% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Loric Games, Inc.
G-Rebels · EA $29.99 254 79% 7.6k $229k (exactly $228,524) Reakktor Studios
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.