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Should I ship an Exploration Visual Novel?
Exploration + Visual Novel
Of 501 developers who shipped an Exploration Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 849 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×7.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×837 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 849 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $716 (exactly $716) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $28,186) |
| Top 5% | $398k (exactly $397,601) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 501 |
| Released games | 1,489 |
| Announced | 849 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Exploration, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 54,430 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 318 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 849 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017 · $28M 
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc 2016 · $22M 
The Coffin of Andy and Leyley 2023 · EA · $13M 
Night in the Woods 2017 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | What Remains of Edith Finch | older | $19.99 | 47,036 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,207,489) | Giant Sparrow |
| | Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc | older | $19.99 | 36,194 96% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,705,542) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
| | The Coffin of Andy and Leyley | · EA older | $11.99 | 36,603 96% | 1.1M | $13M (exactly $13,166,099) | Kit9 Studio |
| | Night in the Woods | older | $19.99 | 17,760 94% | 533k | $11M (exactly $10,650,672) | Infinite Fall |
 | Murders on the Yangtze River | older | $14.99 | 15,833 96% | 475k | $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) | OMEGAMES STUDIO |
 | OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition | older | $24.99 | 8,722 96% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) | SIGONO INC. |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
 | UNBEATABLE | $27.99 | 6,552 92% | 197k | $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) | D-CELL GAMES | |
 | TOGETHER BnB | · EA older | $17.99 | 9,025 59% | 271k | $4.9M (exactly $4,870,792) | AURORA Games |
 | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | Promise Mascot Agency | $24.99 | 2,569 96% | 77k | $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) | Kaizen Game Works | |
 | Ys X: Nordics | $59.99 | 890 76% | 27k | $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | Aurelia | $19.99 | 2,253 94% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) | MirthalGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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