Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Exploration

Of 232 developers who shipped an Exploration Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 473 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×475 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 473 games are announced against 130 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 473 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 232
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $10k → $4.7k → $6.7k → $3.0k → $3.7k → $1.0k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 232
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,035)
Top 5% $299k (exactly $298,601)
Developers, 2 yr 232
Released games 680
Announced 473
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 23,258 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 132 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 473 games are announced against 130 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
Wasteland 2: Director's Cut older $29.99 4,664 82% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,196,201) inXile Entertainment
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
Fretless - The Wrath of Riffson $14.99 1,399 98% 42k $629k (exactly $629,130) Ritual Studios
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
Stray Path $14.99 918 73% 28k $413k (exactly $412,825) zidong games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.