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Should I ship an Exploration Immersive Sim?
Immersive Sim + Exploration
Of 829 developers who shipped an Exploration Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,544 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×787 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,544 games are announced against 470 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,248) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $25,485) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,178,214) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 829 |
| Released games | 2,024 |
| Announced | 1,544 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Immersive Sim
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Immersive Sim, Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Open World
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 297,241 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 467 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,544 games are announced against 470 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Trading Card GameStrong odds
- + MinigamesStrong odds
- + WesternStrong odds
- + BoxingStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Split ScreenFair
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012 · $454M 
Sons Of The Forest 2024 · $256M 
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M 
American Truck Simulator 2016 · $99M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Euro Truck Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 756,984 97% | 23M | $454M (exactly $453,963,305) | SCS Software |
| | Sons Of The Forest | older | $29.99 | 284,572 88% | 8.5M | $256M (exactly $256,029,428) | Endnight Games Ltd |
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
| | American Truck Simulator | older | $19.99 | 165,692 97% | 5.0M | $99M (exactly $99,365,492) | SCS Software |
 | No Rest for the Wicked | · EA older | $39.99 | 66,102 80% | 2.0M | $79M (exactly $79,302,569) | Moon Studios GmbH |
 | The Planet Crafter | older | $23.99 | 68,855 96% | 2.1M | $50M (exactly $49,554,944) | Miju Games |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | RoadCraft | $39.99 | 13,527 74% | 406k | $16M (exactly $16,228,342) | Saber Interactive | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Hello Kitty Island Adventure | $39.99 | 9,637 93% | 289k | $12M (exactly $11,561,509) | Sunblink | |
 | WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition | $29.99 | 11,511 97% | 345k | $10M (exactly $10,356,447) | eduweb |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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