Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Time Manipulation game?

Exploration + Time Manipulation

Of 66 developers who shipped an Exploration Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 145 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×480 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 145 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 145 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $45k → $1.8k → $1.1k → $2.3k → $899 → $8.9k → $150 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,902)
Top 5% $228k (exactly $227,836)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 225
Announced 145
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.79

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Action
Price point
$7.79 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.79.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 3,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 145 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Luna Nights older $17.99 13,776 97% 413k $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Twelve Minutes older $24.99 7,408 73% 222k $5.6M (exactly $5,553,778) Luis Antonio
The Entropy Centre older $19.99 3,359 89% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,014,392) Stubby Games
The Silent Age older $9.99 5,966 93% 179k $1.8M (exactly $1,788,010) House On Fire
Timespinner older $19.99 2,823 86% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,953) Lunar Ray Games
Arise: A Simple Story older $19.99 2,723 91% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,632,983) Piccolo Studio
Wanderer older $39.99 824 83% 25k $989k (exactly $988,553) Mighty Eyes
CONVERGENCE: A League of Legends Story™ older $29.99 1,048 87% 31k $943k (exactly $942,886) Double Stallion
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Homebody older $19.99 632 93% 19k $379k (exactly $379,010) Game Grumps
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
The Posthumous Investigation $19.99 554 94% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Mother Gaia Studio
Dinocop $14.99 737 96% 22k $331k (exactly $331,429) Pieces Games
Kill The Shadow $16.99 447 86% 13k $228k (exactly $227,836) Shadowlight
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
MotionRec $9.99 430 99% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) HANDSUM
Kulebra and the Souls of Limbo: Closure Edition $19.99 164 99% 4.9k $98k (exactly $98,351) Galla
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
UnLoop · EA $17.99 163 98% 4.9k $88k (exactly $87,971) Superposition NULL
Super Drift Blade $6.99 351 94% 11k $74k (exactly $73,605) Liujiajun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.