Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Card Game?

Exploration + Card Game

Of 118 developers who shipped an Exploration Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 194 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×7.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 194 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 194 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $17k → $3.1k → $4.3k → $7.8k → $10k → $1.4k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 118
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,699)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,065)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,825)
Developers, 2 yr 118
Released games 261
Announced 194
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 40,059 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 194 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gamble With Your Friends 2026 · $4.5M BOOK OF HOURS 2023 · $3.1M School Days 2026 · $2.7M Terraformers 2023 · $1.8M Matchmaking Inc. 2025 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Vault of the Void older $17.99 2,529 92% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) Spider Nest Games
Last Evil older $9.99 3,559 94% 107k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,632) Flametorch
Demon Lord: Just a Block $12.99 2,065 96% 62k $805k (exactly $804,730) YuWave
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
Munchkin Digital older $14.99 1,352 76% 41k $608k (exactly $607,994) Dire Wolf
Stray Path $14.99 918 73% 28k $413k (exactly $412,825) zidong games
CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs $4.99 2,752 96% 83k $412k (exactly $411,974) Bastinus Rex
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.