Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk game?

Cyberpunk

Of 964 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,968 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×301 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 1,968 games are announced against 579 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 1,968 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 964
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.4k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.6k → $1.9k → $449 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 964
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,742)
Top 5% $189k (exactly $188,874)
Developers, 2 yr 964
Released games 3,065
Announced 1,968
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.95 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.95 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 123,174 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 489 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,968 games are announced against 579 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Cyberpunk

136 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Top-Down Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $599 69 devs
  2. Racing + Cyberpunk Poor odds $599 63 devs
  3. Stealth + Cyberpunk Poor odds $599 42 devs
  4. Puzzle + Cyberpunk Poor odds $598 149 devs
  5. Shoot 'Em Up + Cyberpunk Poor odds $539 92 devs
  6. Quick-Time Events + Cyberpunk Poor odds $539 18 devs
  7. PvE + Cyberpunk Poor odds $479 135 devs
  8. 2D Platformer + Cyberpunk Poor odds $479 106 devs
  9. Sports + Cyberpunk Poor odds $479 25 devs
  10. RTS + Cyberpunk Poor odds $450 17 devs
  11. Arcade + Cyberpunk Poor odds $449 243 devs
  12. Hidden Object + Cyberpunk Poor odds $359 19 devs
  13. Level Editor + Cyberpunk Poor odds $359 15 devs
  14. 3D Fighter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $300 18 devs
  15. Parkour + Cyberpunk Poor odds $258 31 devs
  16. Swordplay + Cyberpunk Poor odds $208 11 devs
  17. 3D Platformer + Cyberpunk Poor odds $180 56 devs
  18. Survival Horror + Cyberpunk Poor odds $179 15 devs
  19. 2D Fighter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $150 11 devs
  20. Automobile Sim + Cyberpunk Dead $2.4k 9 devs
  21. Split Screen + Cyberpunk Dead $1.6k 11 devs
  22. 4 Player Local + Cyberpunk Dead $898 7 devs
  23. Battle Royale + Cyberpunk Dead $898 3 devs
  24. Board Game + Cyberpunk Dead $480 16 devs
  25. Physics + Cyberpunk Dead $449 74 devs
  26. Local Multiplayer + Cyberpunk Dead $449 20 devs
  27. Puzzle Platformer + Cyberpunk Dead $300 49 devs
  28. Walking Simulator + Cyberpunk Dead $300 19 devs
  29. Word Game + Cyberpunk Dead $300 11 devs
  30. Hero Shooter + Cyberpunk Dead $240 20 devs
  31. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Cyberpunk Dead $239 11 devs
  32. Time Management + Cyberpunk Dead $180 23 devs
  33. Precision Platformer + Cyberpunk Dead $179 48 devs
  34. Wargame + Cyberpunk Dead $148 12 devs
  35. Trading Card Game + Cyberpunk Dead $119 5 devs
  36. Runner + Cyberpunk Dead $90 39 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Detroit: Become Human 2020 · $272M Stray 2022 · $142M Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
RoboCop: Rogue City older $39.99 28,196 86% 846k $34M (exactly $33,826,741) Teyon
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Peripeteia · EA $24.99 3,120 86% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) Ninth Exodus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.