Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Cyberpunk

Only 18 developers shipped a Cyberpunk 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cyberpunk SFX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 38 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 55% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 38 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $1.1k → $599 → $150 → $6.1k → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,845)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 72
Announced 38
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 35%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Spectacle fighter, 3D Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 466 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hell Division older $13.99 191 83% 5.7k $80k (exactly $80,163) Quacky Games
Die by the Blade older $19.99 128 57% 3.8k $77k (exactly $76,762) Grindstone, Triple Hill Interactive, To… (Grindstone, Triple Hill Interactive, Toko Midori Games)
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
Liuyin's world $18.99 79 89% 2.4k $45k (exactly $45,006) kingnagame
FLASHOUT 3 older $19.99 55 61% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Jujubee S.A.
I See Red older $9.99 106 90% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Whiteboard Games
Fighting Robots older $2.99 228 54% 6.8k $20k (exactly $20,452) HFM Games
Tales Of Glory 3 : Fists of Legend $19.99 34 88% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) BlackTale Games
AI-deal-Rays [General Edition] $5.99 112 58% 3.4k $20k (exactly $20,126) Riez-ON
Whisper Trip older $4.99 90 60% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,473) Walnut LLC
Quantum Beast $5.99 34 100% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) RaidenV_00
Metal Combat $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Solar Studios
Bashtronaut $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) OrionGames Inc
Legend of the Moon 2 $2.99 8 87% 240 $718 (exactly $718) GozipGame
Deltascention $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MRBartz
R.E.M. Rage $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Roger Eduardo de Couto

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.