Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Physics game?

Physics + Cyberpunk

Of 74 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 43 developers shipped in the last year and 143 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 143 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $899 → $419 → $239 → $1.3k → $239 → $359 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $48,286)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 187
Announced 143
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,724 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
SPRAWL zero $24.99 710 94% 21k $532k (exactly $532,287) MAETH
Zup! F older $1.99 7,749 96% 232k $463k (exactly $462,615) Quiet River
GIGA WRECKER older $19.99 728 76% 22k $437k (exactly $436,582) GAME FREAK inc.
Mech Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 538 61% 16k $323k (exactly $322,639) Polyslash
Crunch Element · EA older $19.99 502 57% 15k $301k (exactly $301,049) Dreamlab XR
Captain Hardcore · EA $39.99 198 80% 5.9k $238k (exactly $237,541) AntiZero Games
LONN older $29.99 201 64% 6.0k $181k (exactly $180,840) SixSense Studios
CrashMetal - Cyberpunk older $4.99 654 66% 20k $98k (exactly $97,904) JDM4iK Games
Zedfest older $14.99 191 89% 5.7k $86k (exactly $85,893) Diagrammet AB
Head's Adventures:chibichibi $7.99 334 97% 10k $80k (exactly $80,060) ManaWanderer
Elvenfoundry $34.99 46 67% 1.4k $48k (exactly $48,286) SunbathGames
CYBERMATRIX $12.00 127 89% 3.8k $46k (exactly $45,720) Tim Murich
CODE Bunny $9.99 143 93% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,857) Team Seventh Star
Haneda Girl $14.99 74 94% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Studio Koba
Tales Of Glory 3 : Fists of Legend $19.99 34 88% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) BlackTale Games
Cyberpunk Store Simulator · EA $8.99 31 90% 930 $8.4k (exactly $8,361) ICON GAME STUDIO
Project Hover · EA $9.99 27 88% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Ulysses Graphics

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.