Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure game?

Adventure

Of 12,612 developers who shipped an Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24,060 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×820 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 24,060 games are announced against 7,284 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 24,060 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12,612
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $2.2k → $2.1k → $2.0k → $1.9k → $1.7k → $1.2k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12,612
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $389k (exactly $389,310)
Developers, 2 yr 12,612
Released games 52,710
Announced 24,060
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.59

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure
Price point
$6.59 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.59.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,459,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 8,016 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24,060 games are announced against 7,284 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Adventure

80 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Adventure + Samurai Fair $261k 13 devs
  2. Adventure + Wuxia Poor odds $192k 21 devs
  3. Adventure + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $17k 26 devs
  4. Adventure + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $13k 441 devs
  5. Adventure + World War I Poor odds $9.3k 17 devs
  6. Adventure + Trains Poor odds $8.0k 46 devs
  7. Adventure + Romance Poor odds $7.8k 873 devs
  8. Adventure + Birds Poor odds $7.0k 13 devs
  9. Adventure + Martial Arts Poor odds $7.0k 95 devs
  10. Adventure + Horses Poor odds $6.0k 30 devs
  11. Adventure + Music Poor odds $5.7k 78 devs
  12. Adventure + Heist Poor odds $5.5k 41 devs
  13. Adventure + Farming Poor odds $5.4k 37 devs
  14. Adventure + Lovecraftian Poor odds $4.6k 241 devs
  15. Adventure + Female Protagonist Poor odds $4.6k 1,730 devs
  16. Adventure + Werewolves Poor odds $4.5k 44 devs
  17. Adventure + Vampires Poor odds $3.8k 125 devs
  18. Adventure + Cold War Poor odds $3.8k 35 devs
  19. Adventure + Spaceships Poor odds $3.5k 26 devs
  20. Adventure + Crime Poor odds $3.4k 334 devs
  21. Adventure + Time Travel Poor odds $3.1k 139 devs
  22. Adventure + Steampunk Poor odds $3.0k 85 devs
  23. Adventure + Western Poor odds $3.0k 72 devs
  24. Adventure + Historical Poor odds $3.0k 377 devs
  25. Adventure + Capitalism Poor odds $3.0k 98 devs
  26. Adventure + Rome Poor odds $3.0k 20 devs
  27. Adventure + Animals Poor odds $2.9k 64 devs
  28. Adventure + Transhumanism Poor odds $2.8k 40 devs
  29. Adventure + Gothic Poor odds $2.7k 198 devs
  30. Adventure + Naval Poor odds $2.4k 72 devs
  31. Adventure + Detective Poor odds $2.4k 690 devs
  32. Adventure + Hacking Poor odds $2.4k 63 devs
  33. Adventure + Mechs Poor odds $2.3k 60 devs
  34. Adventure + Vikings Poor odds $2.3k 14 devs
  35. Adventure + Dystopian Poor odds $2.2k 349 devs
  36. Adventure + Dragons Poor odds $2.2k 138 devs
  37. Adventure + World War II Poor odds $2.0k 35 devs
  38. Adventure + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.9k 1,028 devs
  39. Adventure + Science Poor odds $1.9k 125 devs
  40. Adventure + Dogs Poor odds $1.9k 137 devs
  41. Adventure + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.9k 2,489 devs
  42. Adventure + Thriller Poor odds $1.9k 1,082 devs
  43. Adventure + Supernatural Poor odds $1.9k 870 devs
  44. Adventure + Mythology Poor odds $1.9k 316 devs
  45. Adventure + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.8k 204 devs
  46. Adventure + Dinosaurs Poor odds $1.8k 80 devs
  47. Adventure + Superhero Poor odds $1.8k 55 devs
  48. Adventure + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.8k 653 devs
  49. Adventure + Modern Poor odds $1.7k 290 devs
  50. Adventure + Noir Poor odds $1.7k 260 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.