Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Wuxia

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wuxia Adventure game?

Adventure + Wuxia

Of 21 developers who shipped a Wuxia Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $190k, ×306 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $19k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3615 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 305.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Wuxia
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $171k → $187k → $2.3M → $768k → $198k (still earning) → $192k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Wuxia: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $18k (exactly $18,282)
Median $192k (exactly $192,122)
Top 25% $889k (exactly $889,355)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 73
Announced 54
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 325% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Wuxia
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 76,306 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $19k, median $190k, 1 in 4 over $880k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Legend of Mortal older $19.99 33,730 77% 1.0M $20M (exactly $20,227,881) Obb Studio Inc.
Sword and Fairy 7 older $29.99 15,567 72% 467k $14M (exactly $14,005,630) 软星科技(SoftStarlight)
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室(Half Amateur Studio)
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII older $34.99 8,490 62% 255k $8.9M (exactly $8,911,953) SOFTSTAR, DOMO Studio
Fate Seeker older $21.09 11,930 90% 358k $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) JSL Entertainment
The Wind Road older $29.99 5,920 69% 178k $5.3M (exactly $5,326,224) 甘肃嘉元数字科技有限公司
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Bladesong · EA $19.99 1,483 95% 44k $889k (exactly $889,355) SUN AND SERPENT creations
再见断刀 $9.99 2,563 92% 77k $768k (exactly $768,131) 非侠游戏
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
万象群侠传 $8.99 853 85% 26k $230k (exactly $230,054) 火天工作室
Soul's Chronicle: Immortal Slayer $14.99 441 77% 13k $198k (exactly $198,318) 正向星光工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.