Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Adventure game?

Adventure + Farming

Of 37 developers who shipped a Farming Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×9367 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 63 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 63 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $4.9k → $2.2k → $17k → $13k → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,588)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 96
Announced 63
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Crafting, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 38,636 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $4.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
DORAEMON STORY OF SEASONS older $49.99 1,845 81% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,766,946) Marvelous Inc., Brownies Inc.
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Re:Legend older $24.99 1,514 56% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,046) Magnus Games Studio
Farming & Supermarket Simulator $11.99 835 79% 25k $300k (exactly $300,350) EY08 Games
Backroom Company $8.99 608 81% 18k $164k (exactly $163,978) Hypercent Inc.
Pirates VR: Jolly Roger $19.99 212 76% 6.4k $127k (exactly $127,136) Split Light Studio
Elsewhere · EA $15.99 80 96% 2.4k $38k (exactly $38,376) Four White Cats
Russian Village Simulator 2 $15.99 61 70% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) VD Games, PropilGames
Wild Planet · EA $19.99 41 63% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) MonkeyFactory Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.