Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Adventure game?

Adventure + Transhumanism

Of 40 developers who shipped a Transhumanist Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×5.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×421 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 109 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 109 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $12k → $16k → $3.6k → $3.8k → $1.7k → $11k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $955 (exactly $955)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,781)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,279)
Top 5% $200k (exactly $200,170)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 129
Announced 109
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Visual Novel, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Lore-Rich, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,642 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
Bomb Rush Cyberfunk older $39.99 12,645 98% 379k $15M (exactly $15,170,206) Team Reptile
Binary Domain older $14.99 3,567 86% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,604,080) Devil's Details
Deus Ex: The Fall older $9.99 3,762 37% 113k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,471) ·
State of Mind older $19.99 1,548 76% 46k $928k (exactly $928,336) Daedalic Entertainment
Paradise Lost older $14.99 1,469 67% 44k $661k (exactly $660,609) PolyAmorous
USAC: Code Breach older $14.99 1,067 91% 32k $480k (exactly $479,830) Questions Factory
Deus Ex: Invisible War older $6.99 2,199 57% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Ion Storm
Heat Death: Survival Train · EA $11.99 709 77% 21k $255k (exactly $255,027) Mass Game Devs
Ambrosia Sky $24.99 267 89% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive
Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 $39.99 88 82% 2.6k $106k (exactly $105,574) AQUAPLUS
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Revolgear Zero $14.99 125 98% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Bikkuri Software
Mars Vice $24.99 70 97% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) Rho Labyrinths GmbH
Panthalassa $13.99 98 97% 2.9k $41k (exactly $41,131) Meia Calça
Songs of Rats $14.99 50 78% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) Tesseract Games
春はあけぼの、我はバケモノ。 - Spring at Dawn, I Am a Monster. $9.99 75 64% 2.3k $22k (exactly $22,478) CHARON, STUDIO CHARON
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.