Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Adventure game?

Adventure + Science

Of 125 developers who shipped a Science Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 242 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×2424 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 242 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 242 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 125
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $3.4k → $2.2k → $1.3k → $2.9k → $1.2k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 125
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,382)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424)
Developers, 2 yr 125
Released games 435
Announced 242
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 88,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 242 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
The Outlast Trials older $39.99 90,997 92% 2.7M $109M (exactly $109,169,101) Red Barrels
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Kerbal Space Program 2 · EA older $49.99 27,930 26% 838k $42M (exactly $41,886,621) Intercept Games
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Mina the Hollower $19.99 7,562 88% 227k $4.5M (exactly $4,534,931) Yacht Club Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
METAL EDEN $19.99 1,920 84% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) Reikon Games
STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT $59.99 594 88% 18k $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) MAGES. Inc.
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition $24.99 836 72% 25k $627k (exactly $626,749) Blue Brain Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.