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Should I ship a Naval Adventure game?
Adventure + Naval
Of 72 developers who shipped a Naval Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 114 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $36k (exactly $35,988) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 72 |
| Released games | 195 |
| Announced | 114 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Sailing, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 54,375 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M 
Assassin's Creed Valhalla 2022 · $74M 
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M 
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018 · $19M 
Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
| | Assassin's Creed Valhalla | older | $59.99 | 41,083 70% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $73,937,075) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
| | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
| | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
 | Assassin’s Creed® Rogue | older | $19.99 | 21,310 86% | 639k | $13M (exactly $12,779,607) | Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev |
 | Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 21,302 89% | 639k | $13M (exactly $12,774,809) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | Azur Lane Crosswave | older | $39.99 | 6,537 68% | 196k | $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) | IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA |
 | Naval Action | older | $19.99 | 10,187 52% | 306k | $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) | Bermuda Computer Club |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | Salt 2: Shores of Gold | $19.99 | 2,182 85% | 65k | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) | Lavaboots Studios | |
 | Spilled! | $5.99 | 4,905 93% | 147k | $881k (exactly $881,428) | Lente | |
 | Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 | $29.99 | 521 86% | 16k | $469k (exactly $468,744) | Digixart | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Windward Horizon | $19.99 | 401 79% | 12k | $240k (exactly $240,480) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. | |
 | SeaCret 1 | · EA | $39.99 | 99 61% | 3.0k | $119k (exactly $118,770) | Dalas |
 | Lost & Found: A This Bed We Made Story | $6.99 | 438 92% | 13k | $92k (exactly $91,849) | Lowbirth Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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