Games › Adventure › Adventure + Villain Protagonist
Should I ship a Villain-Led Adventure game?
Adventure + Villain Protagonist
Of 26 developers who shipped a Villain-Led Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $17k, ×35 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×544 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) |
|---|---|
| Median | $17k (exactly $16,519) |
| Top 25% | $41k (exactly $41,359) |
| Top 5% | $258k (exactly $258,214) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 26 |
| Released games | 136 |
| Announced | 47 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 1%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Adventure
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,702 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021 · $30M 
Maneater 2021 · $26M 
CARRION 2020 · $20M 
Untitled Goose Game 2020 · $14M 
Prototype 2 2012 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Skul: The Hero Slayer | older | $19.99 | 50,801 93% | 1.5M | $30M (exactly $30,465,360) | SOUTHPAW GAMES |
| | Maneater | older | $39.99 | 21,790 87% | 654k | $26M (exactly $26,141,463) | Tripwire Interactive |
| | CARRION | older | $19.99 | 33,270 94% | 998k | $20M (exactly $19,952,019) | Phobia Game Studio |
| | Untitled Goose Game | older | $19.99 | 22,797 95% | 684k | $14M (exactly $13,671,361) | House House |
| | Prototype 2 | older | $39.99 | 10,389 75% | 312k | $12M (exactly $12,463,683) | Radical Entertainment |
 | Tyranny | older | $29.99 | 9,877 87% | 296k | $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Destroy All Humans! | older | $29.99 | 8,971 92% | 269k | $8.1M (exactly $8,071,209) | Black Forest Games, Pandemic Studios |
 | Aliens vs. Predator™ | older | $14.99 | 16,268 91% | 488k | $7.3M (exactly $7,315,720) | Rebellion |
 | LEGO® DC Super-Villains | older | $39.99 | 5,798 91% | 174k | $7.0M (exactly $6,955,861) | TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac) |
 | Pumpkin Jack | older | $29.99 | 7,416 91% | 222k | $6.7M (exactly $6,672,175) | Evil Raptor |
 | Mr. Sleepy Man | $19.99 | 636 98% | 19k | $381k (exactly $381,409) | Devin Santi | |
 | TORMENTOR | $29.99 | 287 49% | 8.6k | $258k (exactly $258,214) | Madmind Studio | |
 | Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival | $9.99 | 826 77% | 25k | $248k (exactly $247,552) | RetroStyle Games | |
 | Highway Police Simulator | $27.99 | 242 30% | 7.3k | $203k (exactly $203,207) | Z-Software | |
 | Relooted | $14.99 | 257 87% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | Nyamakop | |
 | Munch | $16.66 | 96 60% | 2.9k | $48k (exactly $47,981) | Mac n Cheese Games | |
 | Lords of Ravage | $9.99 | 138 66% | 4.1k | $41k (exactly $41,359) | Synthetic Domain | |
 | The Supper: New Blood | $9.99 | 120 88% | 3.6k | $36k (exactly $35,964) | White Blanket Games | |
 | Ghost Keeper | $12.99 | 70 75% | 2.1k | $27k (exactly $27,279) | Quest Craft | |
 | Stranger Things VR | $24.99 | 30 73% | 900 | $22k (exactly $22,491) | Tender Claws |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.