Games › Adventure › Adventure + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Adventure game?
Adventure + Heist
Of 41 developers who shipped a Heist Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×325 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 101 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,658) |
| Top 5% | $204k (exactly $203,898) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 185 |
| Announced | 101 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 18,652 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M 
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN 2015 · $44M 
Dishonored 2 2016 · $39M 
Crime Scene Cleaner 2024 · $29M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Royal | older | $59.99 | 91,682 96% | 2.8M | $165M (exactly $165,000,095) | ATLUS |
| | Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 71,706 84% | 2.2M | $86M (exactly $86,025,688) | Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux)) |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN | older | $19.99 | 73,137 91% | 2.2M | $44M (exactly $43,860,259) | KONAMI |
| | Dishonored 2 | older | $29.99 | 42,988 90% | 1.3M | $39M (exactly $38,676,304) | Arkane Studios |
| | Crime Scene Cleaner | older | $29.99 | 32,469 98% | 974k | $29M (exactly $29,212,359) | President Studio |
 | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
 | Thief | older | $19.99 | 17,389 75% | 522k | $10M (exactly $10,428,183) | Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac) |
 | Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 | older | $19.99 | 15,133 67% | 454k | $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) | CI Games |
 | Burglin' Gnomes | $9.99 | 4,635 83% | 139k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) | Fobri | |
 | Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow | $19.99 | 340 75% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | Maze Theory | |
 | Midnight Heist | $9.99 | 389 92% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | MediaTale | |
 | Relooted | $14.99 | 257 87% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | Nyamakop | |
 | Frog Sqwad 🐸 | $7.99 | 352 72% | 11k | $84k (exactly $84,374) | Panic Stations | |
 | Monaco 2 | $14.99 | 156 63% | 4.7k | $70k (exactly $70,153) | Pocketwatch Games | |
 | HeistGeist | $19.90 | 116 95% | 3.5k | $69k (exactly $69,252) | Doublequote Studio | |
 | Arsene Lupin - Once a Thief | $29.99 | 69 68% | 2.1k | $62k (exactly $62,079) | Blazing Griffin | |
 | LIFTED | $19.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $42k (exactly $41,979) | Adventure Works L.L.C. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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