Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI Adventure game?

Adventure + World War I

Only 17 developers shipped a WWI Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Lightkeeper, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×413 the market median. Revenue is up 450% on the market; 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 450% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $131k → $750 → $150 → $3.2k → $64k → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,518)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,329)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,048)
Top 5% $259k (exactly $259,116)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 55
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 450% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Choices Matter, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,865 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ older $14.99 24,468 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,003,260) Ubisoft Montpellier
Ad Infinitum older $39.99 1,033 76% 31k $1.2M (exactly $1,239,290) Hekate
CONSCRIPT: Director’s Cut older $19.99 1,998 90% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,201) Jordan Mochi, Catchweight Studio
11-11 Memories Retold older $29.99 669 89% 20k $602k (exactly $601,899) Aardman Animations, Digixart
The Lightkeeper $7.99 1,081 81% 32k $259k (exactly $259,116) Darkphobia Games
The Caribou Trail $12.99 636 90% 19k $248k (exactly $247,849) Unreliable Narrators, Manavoid Entertai… (Unreliable Narrators, Manavoid Entertainment)
Valiant Hearts: Coming Home older $14.99 529 62% 16k $238k (exactly $237,891) Ubisoft Da Nang, Ubisoft Montpellier
Changeling Tale older $19.99 218 98% 6.5k $131k (exactly $130,735) Helmet Fox
Under: Depths of Fear older $9.99 253 66% 7.6k $76k (exactly $75,824) Globiss Interactive
The Last Express Gold Edition older $6.99 332 79% 10k $70k (exactly $69,620) Dotemu
Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love $29.99 76 92% 2.3k $68k (exactly $68,377) ASa Project
Trench Face $2.99 717 93% 22k $64k (exactly $64,315) Pulse Blue
The Amusement $21.99 41 80% 1.2k $27k (exactly $27,048) Curvature Games, ARTE France
Hello Girl $6.99 94 97% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,712) Imo Team
Miss Peacock $9.99 33 96% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Otter Club
Trenches VR $14.99 21 66% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Steelkrill Studio
Shellshock $2.99 104 89% 3.1k $9.3k (exactly $9,329) Man the Barricades Ltd
Little Lighthouse of Horror $2.99 62 85% 1.9k $5.6k (exactly $5,561) Codiwans

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.