Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Adventure game?

Adventure + Lovecraftian

Of 241 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 462 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×9.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1516 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 462 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 462 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 241
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.8k → $6.0k → $8.7k → $4.8k → $4.6k → $7.9k → $3.9k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 241
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,863)
Top 5% $720k (exactly $719,960)
Developers, 2 yr 241
Released games 741
Announced 462
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Puzzle
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 56,502 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 134 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 462 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
What Remains of Edith Finch older $19.99 47,036 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,207,489) Giant Sparrow
Scorn older $49.99 14,546 77% 436k $22M (exactly $21,814,636) Ebb Software
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Amnesia: The Dark Descent older $19.99 20,420 95% 613k $12M (exactly $12,245,874) Frictional Games
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
ICEY older $10.99 25,142 89% 754k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,317) FantaBlade Network
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Strange Antiquities $17.99 3,288 95% 99k $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) Bad Viking
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
Eclipsium $12.99 3,306 91% 99k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) Housefire

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.