Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Adventure game?

Adventure + Dragons

Of 138 developers who shipped a Dragon Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 248 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×6127 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 248 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 248 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 138
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.7k → $2.0k → $958 → $2.1k → $2.2k → $4.8k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 138
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,198)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759)
Developers, 2 yr 138
Released games 548
Announced 248
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 440,313 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 248 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
Lords of the Fallen older $29.99 37,902 68% 1.1M $34M (exactly $34,100,429) CI Games
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen older $29.99 37,437 88% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,682,069) Capcom
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
Dragonkin: The Banished $24.99 2,239 72% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) Eko Software
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.