Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Adventure game?

Adventure + Romance

Of 873 developers who shipped a Romance Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,117 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×725 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,117 games are announced against 491 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,117 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 873
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $12k → $13k → $9.7k → $11k → $9.0k → $6.0k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 873
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,308)
Top 5% $344k (exactly $344,495)
Developers, 2 yr 873
Released games 3,249
Announced 1,117
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 269,106 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 582 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,117 games are announced against 491 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Tales of ARISE older $49.99 27,643 86% 829k $41M (exactly $41,456,207) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Senren*Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Life is Strange: True Colors older $59.99 12,360 88% 371k $22M (exactly $22,244,292) Deck Nine
SONIC X SHADOW GENERATIONS $49.99 12,178 96% 365k $18M (exactly $18,263,347) Sonic Team
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.