Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Mechs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mech Adventure game?

Adventure + Mechs

Of 60 developers who shipped a Mech Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1953 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 110 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 110 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Mechs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.4k → $33k → $2.2k → $25k → $7.5k → $6.0k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Mechs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 25% $84k (exactly $83,670)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 206
Announced 110
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mechs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Side Scroller
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 49,812 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $83k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 6 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel older $39.99 5,131 94% 154k $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) Nihon Falcom
Chained Echoes older $24.99 7,713 88% 231k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,436) Umami Tiger (Matthias Linda)
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III older $59.99 2,770 92% 83k $5.0M (exactly $4,985,169) Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH)
F.E.A.R. 3 older $19.99 7,407 69% 222k $4.4M (exactly $4,441,978) Day 1 Studios
Vanquish older $19.99 6,974 89% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,182,308) PlatinumGames, Little Stone Software
Muv-Luv Alternative older $39.99 3,447 95% 103k $4.1M (exactly $4,135,366) aNCHOR Inc.
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Wall World 2 $11.99 1,749 73% 52k $629k (exactly $629,115) Alawar
Guns of Fury $14.99 950 88% 29k $427k (exactly $427,215) Gelato Games Ltd
Stories from Sol: The Gun-Dog $14.99 843 90% 25k $379k (exactly $379,097) Space Colony Studios
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.