Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation

Of 2,188 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,211 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×1045 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 4,211 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,188
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $2.8k → $2.9k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,188
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 5% $497k (exactly $496,552)
Developers, 2 yr 2,188
Released games 5,855
Announced 4,211
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 974,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 992 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Procedural Generation

162 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Procedural Generation + Card Game Poor odds $3.8k 211 devs
  2. Turn-Based Strategy + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.7k 254 devs
  3. Procedural Generation + Resource Management Poor odds $3.6k 317 devs
  4. Mining + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.5k 90 devs
  5. Stealth + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.4k 74 devs
  6. 4X + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.4k 37 devs
  7. Procedural Generation + Bullet Heaven Poor odds $3.4k 58 devs
  8. Procedural Generation + Board Game Poor odds $3.3k 69 devs
  9. Tactical + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.2k 205 devs
  10. Looter Shooter + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.1k 42 devs
  11. Creature Collector + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.1k 58 devs
  12. Souls-like + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.1k 36 devs
  13. Procedural Generation + Visual Novel Poor odds $3.1k 11 devs
  14. Turn-Based Tactics + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.1k 216 devs
  15. Economy + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.0k 122 devs
  16. Simulation + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.9k 442 devs
  17. Loot + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.7k 187 devs
  18. Hack and Slash + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.7k 156 devs
  19. Naval Combat + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.7k 12 devs
  20. Destruction + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.5k 46 devs
  21. Procedural Generation + Trading Poor odds $2.4k 41 devs
  22. Strategy + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.4k 827 devs
  23. Choices Matter + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.2k 224 devs
  24. Beat 'em up + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.2k 16 devs
  25. Hex Grid + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.2k 62 devs
  26. Procedural Generation + Roguelike Poor odds $2.2k 908 devs
  27. Procedural Generation + Perma Death Poor odds $2.2k 334 devs
  28. Procedural Generation + Time Management Poor odds $2.2k 85 devs
  29. Fishing + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.2k 17 devs
  30. Character Customization + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.1k 218 devs
  31. Dungeon Crawler + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.0k 402 devs
  32. Immersive Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.0k 84 devs
  33. CRPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.0k 25 devs
  34. Procedural Generation + Roguelite Poor odds $2.0k 870 devs
  35. Procedural Generation + Inventory Management Poor odds $2.0k 140 devs
  36. Class-Based + Procedural Generation Poor odds $2.0k 68 devs
  37. Exploration + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.9k 527 devs
  38. Space Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.8k 60 devs
  39. Wargame + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.8k 38 devs
  40. Survival + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.8k 338 devs
  41. Life Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.8k 47 devs
  42. Procedural Generation + Tower Defense Poor odds $1.8k 127 devs
  43. Gun Customization + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.7k 63 devs
  44. Procedural Generation + Investigation Poor odds $1.7k 38 devs
  45. FPS + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.6k 94 devs
  46. Procedural Generation + Time Manipulation Poor odds $1.5k 22 devs
  47. Procedural Generation + Grid-Based Movement Poor odds $1.5k 105 devs
  48. Adventure + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.5k 576 devs
  49. Action-Adventure + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.4k 263 devs
  50. Procedural Generation + Mystery Dungeon Poor odds $1.4k 64 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M RimWorld 2018 · $219M Stellaris 2016 · $210M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.