Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Economy game?

Economy + Procedural Generation

Of 122 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 231 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×977 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 231 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 231 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 122
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3k → $21k → $10k → $2.8k → $9.6k → $4.3k → $2.5k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 122
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,750)
Top 5% $614k (exactly $613,792)
Developers, 2 yr 122
Released games 250
Announced 231
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 56,697 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 231 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Keep Digging $6.99 2,927 79% 88k $614k (exactly $613,792) Wild Dog
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
City Tales - Medieval Era $22.99 543 90% 16k $375k (exactly $374,507) Irregular Shapes

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.