Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Card Game?

Procedural Generation + Card Game

Of 211 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 409 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×8.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1792 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 409 games are announced against 135 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 409 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 211
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $132k → $54k → $16k → $4.3k → $8.1k → $5.5k → $2.5k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 211
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,572)
Top 5% $851k (exactly $850,974)
Developers, 2 yr 211
Released games 386
Announced 409
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Card Game; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Deckbuilding
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 253,236 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 409 games are announced against 135 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.