Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Procedural Generation

Of 84 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 188 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1123 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 188 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 75% on the market, 188 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.8k → $10k → $5.3k → $7.0k → $1.8k → $2.5k → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,279)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 236
Announced 188
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 51,289 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 188 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Streets of Rogue older $19.99 17,215 96% 516k $10M (exactly $10,323,836) Matt Dabrowski
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Dealer's Life 2 older $14.99 3,994 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,796,102) Abyte Entertainment
Ancient Cities older $29.99 1,904 64% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Uncasual Games
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
GERONIMO · EA $19.99 1,267 81% 38k $760k (exactly $759,820) Dark Matter Studios
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge
Devil Spire Falls · EA $14.99 1,068 94% 32k $480k (exactly $480,280) Ithiro Sumi
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
Primitier $19.99 305 94% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ota Mato

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.