Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Adventure game?

Adventure + Procedural Generation

Of 576 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,284 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1502 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 1,284 games are announced against 337 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 1,284 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 576
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $2.8k → $4.4k → $1.2k → $4.4k → $1.6k → $1.3k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 576
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,492)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,887)
Top 5% $714k (exactly $713,643)
Developers, 2 yr 576
Released games 1,573
Announced 1,284
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 413,426 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 274 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,284 games are announced against 337 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Core Keeper older $19.99 50,066 92% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,024,580) Pugstorm
We Happy Few older $59.99 11,204 76% 336k $20M (exactly $20,163,839) Compulsion Games
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Sephiria $17.99 11,582 94% 347k $6.3M (exactly $6,250,805) TEAM HORAY
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Heroes of Hammerwatch II $19.99 5,806 82% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,481,858) Crackshell
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.