Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Procedural Generation game?

Choices Matter + Procedural Generation

Of 224 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 514 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×3040 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 514 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 514 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 224
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $8.8k → $7.5k → $2.2k → $8.1k → $1.2k → $3.0k (still earning) → $733 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 224
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 224
Released games 490
Announced 514
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 58,395 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 89 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 514 games are announced against 137 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Road 96 🛣️ 2021 · $13M Wildermyth 2021 · $12M Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Road 96 🛣️ older $19.96 22,118 91% 664k $13M (exactly $13,244,258) Digixart
Wildermyth older $24.99 16,316 94% 489k $12M (exactly $12,232,105) Worldwalker Games LLC
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
UnderMine older $19.99 9,284 90% 279k $5.6M (exactly $5,567,615) Thorium
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.