Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Procedural Generation

Only 12 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Darkwater, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×472 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 33 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $599 → $17k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,383)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 34
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1000% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Procedural Generation
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,180 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles older $19.99 1,381 85% 41k $828k (exactly $828,186) Tomas Sala
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Sail Forth older $19.99 604 92% 18k $362k (exactly $362,219) Festive Vector
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Battlecruisers older $9.99 386 83% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) Mecha Weka
Winds Of Trade older $11.99 154 61% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,394) Rhombico Games
Red Rogue Sea $16.99 53 64% 1.6k $27k (exactly $27,014) Firemage Studios
Dreadful River $9.99 58 72% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) SureAI
INSANIO $9.99 48 66% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) somebody
Pirates: Rogue's Fortune · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) NINPO Game Studio
Kamikaze Survivors $9.99 9 77% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) DaboSoft
Mech and Tech 1 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) colmer_it UG
Pirate Twist · EA $4.67 5 100% 150 $700 (exactly $700) BTG Labs
Mk50TWL Vehicle Battler Custom Slider · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) TimberWoodLumber Games
Viking Breaker $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Gamific, Kode Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.