Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Bullet Heaven?

Procedural Generation + Bullet Heaven

Of 58 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $230; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2615 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 116 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $582k → $623k → $64k → $25k → $21k → $6.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $149 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $228 (exactly $228)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,414)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,733)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 84
Announced 116
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 255% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Bullet Heaven; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 64,043 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $230, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $230. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
God Of Weapons older $5.99 4,807 84% 144k $864k (exactly $863,818) Imagine Games
Picayune Dreams older $4.99 4,164 98% 125k $623k (exactly $623,351) Stepford, Andyland, milkypossum
Cultivation Story: Reincarnation older $9.99 1,994 92% 60k $598k (exactly $597,602) Chi Entertainment Corp.
Army of Ruin older $7.99 2,430 87% 73k $582k (exactly $582,471) Milkstone Studios
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
Funguys Swarm $9.99 1,114 89% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Stairway Games
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Sodaman $7.99 738 78% 22k $177k (exactly $176,899) Tape Corps
Ketz: Galactic Overlords · EA $8.99 386 71% 12k $104k (exactly $104,104) Keep Games
Murim Survival $7.99 264 75% 7.9k $63k (exactly $63,281) Sunwood Games
Survivor Mercs $9.99 147 70% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Wolpertinger Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.