Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Procedural Generation game?

Fishing + Procedural Generation

Only 17 developers shipped a Fishing Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Salt 2: Shores of Gold, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2755 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 41 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $133k → $18k → $2.2k → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fishing + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,712)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 36
Announced 41
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing, Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Management, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 4,212 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds14 devs · median $47k · 29 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  10. + CapitalismPoor odds15 devs · median $23k · 18 announced
  11. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $15k · 30 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Intergalactic Fishing older $14.99 379 95% 11k $170k (exactly $170,436) Boat Anchor Games
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES
FATE: The Cursed King older $7.99 484 93% 15k $116k (exactly $116,015) WildTangent
Black Hole Fishing $5.99 571 88% 17k $103k (exactly $102,609) SDG Games
Creatura older $14.99 214 67% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Koksny.com
Call of Boba · EA $12.99 125 67% 3.8k $49k (exactly $48,712) Tomatoast, Tomatoast
Zen Aquarium $4.99 302 93% 9.1k $45k (exactly $45,209) Astro Cat
PostCollapse older $7.99 127 56% 3.8k $30k (exactly $30,442) Ambiera
Tales from The Dancing Moon $17.99 34 88% 1.0k $18k (exactly $18,350) DjMonkey
Moorage · EA $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Daedalus Studios
The Honest Little Fisher $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) Kiene & Sohn
Stranded Without A Phone $2.99 24 100% 720 $2.2k (exactly $2,153) Gilligames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.