Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation FPS?

FPS + Procedural Generation

Of 94 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 235 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×448 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 235 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 235 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $7.6k → $11k → $1.8k → $7.2k → $479 → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,733)
Top 5% $670k (exactly $670,441)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 296
Announced 235
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 27,234 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 235 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M White Knuckle 2025 · EA · $6.8M BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE 2020 · $5.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
The Blackout Club older $29.99 2,187 78% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,967,644) Question
Due Process · EA older $9.99 6,558 83% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,965,433) Giant Enemy Crab
Sir, You Are Being Hunted older $19.99 2,875 79% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) Big Robot Ltd
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
GERONIMO · EA $19.99 1,267 81% 38k $760k (exactly $759,820) Dark Matter Studios
Pratfall $7.99 2,797 90% 84k $670k (exactly $670,441) Quad Head
Moros Protocol $24.99 731 81% 22k $548k (exactly $548,031) Pixel Reign
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
Sin Spire $9.99 1,580 88% 47k $474k (exactly $473,526) Krasue Games
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
TAMASHIKA $19.99 303 80% 9.1k $182k (exactly $181,709) quicktequila

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.