Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Grand Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy

Of 363 developers who shipped a Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 587 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×918 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 587 games are announced against 227 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 587 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 363
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $6.6k → $5.4k → $4.5k → $2.2k → $2.5k → $1.6k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 363
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,599)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225)
Developers, 2 yr 363
Released games 1,302
Announced 587
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 144,110 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 199 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 587 games are announced against 227 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Grand Strategy

80 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Grand Strategy + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $1.3k 20 devs
  2. Grand Strategy + Action Poor odds $1.2k 53 devs
  3. Immersive Sim + Grand Strategy Poor odds $1.1k 53 devs
  4. Grand Strategy + Action-Adventure Poor odds $1.1k 22 devs
  5. Grand Strategy + Auto Battler Poor odds $1.0k 15 devs
  6. Grand Strategy + Space Sim Poor odds $899 12 devs
  7. Grand Strategy + Choices Matter Poor odds $838 66 devs
  8. Grand Strategy + Physics Poor odds $809 12 devs
  9. Grand Strategy + Time Management Poor odds $779 33 devs
  10. Grand Strategy + Adventure Poor odds $624 34 devs
  11. Grand Strategy + Card Game Poor odds $600 17 devs
  12. Grand Strategy + Automation Poor odds $600 13 devs
  13. Grand Strategy + 2D Platformer Poor odds $599 19 devs
  14. Grand Strategy + Shooter Poor odds $599 10 devs
  15. Grand Strategy + Multiple Endings Poor odds $564 22 devs
  16. Grand Strategy + Board Game Poor odds $539 33 devs
  17. Grand Strategy + Crafting Poor odds $449 15 devs
  18. Grand Strategy + Level Editor Dead $124k 12 devs
  19. Grand Strategy + Tanks Dead $65k 6 devs
  20. Grand Strategy + Flight Dead $37k 2 devs
  21. Grand Strategy + Card Battler Dead $450 11 devs
  22. Grand Strategy + Logic Dead $300 30 devs
  23. Grand Strategy + Puzzle Dead $239 35 devs
  24. Grand Strategy + Point & Click Dead $239 15 devs
  25. Grand Strategy + 3D Platformer Dead $239 12 devs
  26. Grand Strategy + Platformer Dead $239 9 devs
  27. Grand Strategy + Puzzle Platformer Dead $239 9 devs
  28. Grand Strategy + Arcade Dead $179 12 devs
  29. Grand Strategy + Hidden Object Dead $179 6 devs
  30. FPS + Grand Strategy Dead $120 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Stellaris 2016 · $210M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.