Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Card Battler

Only 11 developers shipped a Card Battler Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Hex, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,330)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,922)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 37
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Card Battler
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 92% positive over 656 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $450, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Fury of Dracula: Digital Edition older $12.99 213 72% 6.4k $83k (exactly $83,006) Nomad Games
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
Last Day of Rome older $11.99 162 49% 4.9k $58k (exactly $58,271) Hamsters
Hypnosis Card older $4.99 216 71% 6.5k $32k (exactly $32,335) Naku Kinoko
Hypnosis Card 2 $12.99 65 78% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) Naku Kinoko
Dictator Simulator: Gradnar $4.99 84 97% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) GortagonGame
Dice Of Olympus older $11.99 12 83% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) Bathyscaphe Studio
Fight with love - deckbuilder datingsim older $13.99 7 14% 210 $2.9k (exactly $2,938) Bizzare games
Orbit Economica $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Phoenix Smith
Dice Tech Dominion - Enter the Shadow Circuit $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) AUTeddy
GLOBAL CONTROL COUNTRIES $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Maximilian Urazov
Investormania · EA $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) NIGHTCREW
Rogue 21 $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) RadiantBlush, DanikStudios
Stack & Survive $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Deepframe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.