Do I ship it?

Games › Grand Strategy › Grand Strategy + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Action

Of 53 developers who shipped an Action Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×342 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 99 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 99 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $3.9k → $419 → $50k → $779 → $624 → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,743)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 250
Announced 99
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.98

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Action; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Real Time Tactics, Adventure
Price point
$9.98 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Cute, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.98.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013 · $49M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack older $19.99 36,153 97% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,680,954) Petroglyph
ENDLESS Space™ 2 older $39.99 17,280 83% 518k $21M (exactly $20,730,816) AMPLITUDE Studios
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Circle Empires 2 $12.99 266 72% 8.0k $104k (exactly $103,660) Luminous
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
Countryballs: Power Protocol $9.99 168 79% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) KNK DEVELOP
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
Trump Simulator 2025 $3.99 106 91% 3.2k $13k (exactly $12,688) Luke Gayson
EmberStride $29.99 12 91% 360 $11k (exactly $10,796) Sharkgame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.